THE ANTEPOST ANGLE - LADBROKES TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE

The race we probably remember as the old Racing Post Chase. A fiercely competitive renewal – at the time of writing there are no fewer than sixteen horses priced at 16/1 or shorter, which means finding the value angle may to a tough ask.

This said, there are a couple of key trends to help us out. 17 of the last 18 winners between 2007 and 2024 have been aged between seven and nine years old – the race suits an experienced jumper in his prime as opposed to an up-and-coming new kid on the block.

The race suits horses in form – nine of the last ten runners had a top-three finish last time out.

I have always been a believer that Kempton is a course that suits some horses and not others – a course for specialists who appreciate the flat track and tend to be the speedier types. Horses that go well here might not necessarily go well at more undulating stiffer tracks. Dessie loved Kempton and whilst he lifted the roof off with his Gold Cup win, Cheltenham was hardly his favourite haunt.

We these trends in mind, the Paul Nicholls-trained TAHMURUS catches the eye. Being a seven-year-old he looks to be the right age for the race and whilst he did not obtain a top-three finish last time out, his fourth-placed effort in the Rowland Merrick at Wetherby must give him a serious chance here.

Wetherby has long had a reputation as a sharp track so Kempton is sure to suit. It could be argued the Paul Nicholls charge put up his career-best effort when going down by just half a length to Blow Your Wad in a grade two novice event at Kempton on his final start last year.

Tahmurus was speedy enough as novice hurdler to contest the Supreme at Cheltenham – whilst he did not put his best bet forward that day, this just confirms to me its Kempton where we will see him at his best and not Cheltenham. Dessie is not alone in liking Kempton and not particularly enjoy the demands of Cheltenham with its undulations and energy sapping uphill finish.

Old Favorite Our Power is sure to go well. He certainly has a preference for going right-handed and seems to fair better at flatter tracks. he has put in two excellent efforts this term, notably when second last time out to the resurgent Chantry House and races off the same mark here. Prior to that he had chased home the highly-progressive King Turgeon and it would be no surprise to see him in the winner's enclosure here.

This said, at the age of ten, the trends are against him and preference is for TAHMURUS who is available at 16/1 with Bet365 and William Hill.

written by Daryl Lay